Marina Baur: Tell me about the role air conditioning currently plays in India and how this is changing as temperatures rise.

Neha Dhingra: I’ll start by saying that cooling—not just air conditioning, but mechanical cooling more broadly, including electric fans and evaporative coolers—is increasingly becoming a public health, economic, and development issue. The Indian government has actually added heat waves to its list of recognized natural disasters, which tells you how far-reaching their impacts are.

Over time, people have found many ways to stay comfortable on hot days, of course. India’s traditional architecture was designed to provide shade, breezes, and materials that absorb heat. And in the last few decades, electric fans have become very important in India; they’re now the primary cooling solution for most homes, schools, and workplaces.

But these measures aren’t enough for the heat we’re experiencing now. In June, temperatures in one city in Uttar Pradesh stayed around 48°C (118°F) for more than a week. I read recently that almost 5,000 cases of heat stroke have been reported in India this year, and that 20 people have died. Unfortunately, these numbers are almost certainly an undercount.

So keeping people protected in this kind of heat requires air conditioning. Past a certain temperature, fans just end up circulating hot air.

But most people in India don’t have access to AC. CLASP recently conducted research that showed that AC penetration in Indian homes is only about 13%.

This poses major challenges from an equity perspective. Many vulnerable communities lack even the most basic mechanical cooling appliances. Especially vulnerable are daily wage earners like construction workers, street food vendors, or vegetable sellers who spend their days working outside in the hot sun and have no air conditioning at home either. They’re at huge risk for heat strokes and other heat-related illnesses. And for them, being sick means they don’t earn any money. So there’s not just a health impact, there’s also an economic and productivity impact.

I’m optimistic that the new designation of heatwaves as natural disaster can unlock greater public investment in heat resilience and adaptation. This could help expand access to affordable, energy-efficient cooling for vulnerable households, as well as public spaces like schools and healthcare facilities.

But regardless of where this investment comes from, a technological shift is required. Clearly, the question is no longer whether India needs more air conditioning. The question is how we expand access to these appliances responsibly.

It’s not enough to just install more ACs in India, though—we also need to think very carefully about what kind of ACs people will buy. Will they be inefficient models that strain the grid and increase people’s energy bills? Or will they be efficient models that increase thermal comfort, reduce energy bills, reduce pressure on the electricity system, and avoid expensive investments in energy infrastructure that may only be required for a few hours each year?

Experts increasingly understand that efficiency is key, and that efficiency and access reinforce each other. The World Bank recently put out a report that listed AC efficiency as one of its top solutions for helping South Asian cities cope with extreme heat. It also cited India’s efficiency policies as a regional model.

This is the right time to be thinking about AC efficiency in India, since the demand for ACs is predicted to increase ninefold by 2050. Many advanced countries improved their AC standards only after these appliances were widely adopted, but here, a large share of air conditioners that are going to be operated are yet to be purchased. So there is an opportunity to influence the market before it’s fully mature.

Baur: You mentioned straining the power grid. Can you say more about how this plays out and how efficiency can prevent it?

Dhingra: The most important thing to understand is that efficiency allows India to expand access to cooling appliances without proportionally increasing electricity demand. This is key to grid stability.

There are two main challenges when it comes to the grid: the rise in total electricity consumed and the growing peak demand during certain times of day, when many people use their appliances at the same time.

Cooling appliances are one of the largest contributors to India’s peak demand. Every summer, as more people buy ACs, we see peak demand go higher and higher.

During extreme heat waves, when millions of people turn on their ACs at the same time, we see a particularly sharp increase in demand. But if you think about it, this only occurs for a few hours in a year. So it doesn’t make sense for the utilities to add power generation, transmission, and distribution capacity that remains underutilized for the rest of the year.

And it really doesn’t make sense when you think about the cost to consumers. Building this capacity across the country would be extremely expensive, and that cost would ultimately be paid as part of people’s electricity tariffs. So this is a kind of hidden way that inefficient ACs impact affordability, in addition to just raising electricity bills due to increased energy consumption.

Baur: So what are the solutions? How does India approach AC efficiency?

Dhingra: I’ll zoom out a bit and discuss the broader question of appliance efficiency, not just AC efficiency. One of India’s strengths has been recognizing that appliance efficiency is much bigger than regulation alone.

Efficiency standards provide an important market signal, but successful market transformation—in other words, making sure that the appliances people purchase and use are efficient—also requires appliance testing infrastructure, manufacturers, state governments, technical institutions, financing, consumer awareness, and continuous engagement across the entire value chain.

Policymakers in India have consistently worked at building an ecosystem for appliance efficiency in general, and AC efficiency specifically. They’re taking all these issues into account.

So policymaking is occurring as part of this larger process, within this larger ecosystem. And the policies that are being developed show this level of consideration. Starting in 2028, the minimum efficiency requirement for ACs will rise to a level that will dramatically raise the efficiency of products available in Indian stores. This will bring our efficiency standards up to the highest levels found anywhere in the world, comparable to China and Europe’s.

We’ve been talking about the importance of AC efficiency within India, but it’s also critical to understand how important this is from a global climate perspective. This policy will prevent a gigaton of emissions by 2050. It’s hard to overstate how important that is for broader mitigation efforts.

Baur: What are the main considerations that the government and other key players take into account when shaping AC policy and action in India?

Dhingra: One of the first questions is always, how are ordinary people going to get impacted? In other words, is the purchase price of the appliance going to increase if we improve efficiency?

That’s a key consideration, especially in a growing country where the AC penetration is low and access to cooling is a major challenge. Right now, the average price of an air conditioner in India is ₹35,000 INR ($366 USD), while the median household income is roughly ₹14,000 INR ($147 USD) a month. So policymakers don’t want to put these appliances further out of people’s reach.

That changed in 2020, when INMETRO, the federal agency responsible for appliance labeling, introduced a more rigorous classification system with a wider range of performance tiers.

Today, more than 60% of consumers report relying on appliance labels to guide their purchasing decisions. What’s more, 85% of the ACs sold in Brazil use inverter technology, which is more efficient than non-inverter alternatives.

“This shows that consumers have already understood that the most efficient equipment is also the best choice for everyday use,” says Hercules Souza, head of INMETRO’s regulatory division.

But labels alone didn’t drive this transformation. Brazil also aligned energy labeling, appliance efficiency standards, and endorsement programs (in which efficient units are recognized with a government seal) into a coherent policy package that accelerated the shift to more efficient technologies.

As Alexandra Albuquerque Marciel, an energy efficiency projects coordinator at Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy, puts it, the key was “straight dialogue between the different agencies in charge of these policies.”

The government also enlisted the support of international appliance efficiency policy experts at CLASP. Our staff worked alongside Brazilian policymakers throughout this process, providing data, global insights, and technical analysis to inform policy design and align new regulations with global best practice while ensuring they reflected local market realities.

Industry was part of the solution

Policymakers often fear that strengthening appliance efficiency standards will have negative impacts on local industry. Brazil, home to the largest AC manufacturing sector in Latin America and the Caribbean, shows the opposite: Well-designed policies can actually strengthen domestic manufacturing.

From the outset, policymakers worked closely with manufacturers to set clear timelines, incorporate feedback, and allow time for transition. “Dialogue is super important,” Hercules Souza emphasizes. “Don’t do anything hastily . . . the [manufacturing] sector must be part of the discussion.” Without industry buy-in, he notes, policies risk being unrealistic or hard to implement, undermining progress.

Moreover, producing more efficient appliances allows manufacturers to compete globally. “Industry also has an international market to fulfill,” Alexandra Albuquerque Marciel says.

A model for other countries

The results of these efforts speak for themselves. The standards currently in place are expected to save 8 million megawatt-hours of electricity annually while avoiding 4 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions.

A planned revision in 2028 is projected to expand these impacts dramatically, achieving electricity savings of 284 million megawatt-hours—nearly four times the amount of electricity Itaipu, one of the world’s most productive hydroelectric plants, supplies to Brazil each year. This will reduce grid stress, lower costs for consumers, and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

• Energy consumption in surveyed households is not uniform: Climatic conditions, socioeconomic status, awareness of energy efficiency strongly influence appliance use.

• Among surveyed households, electricity use is primarily driven by thermal comfort, which accounts for 40% of total consumption, reflecting the growing demand for cooling solutions. Kitchen appliances contribute 28% to electricity use, while lighting accounts for 11%, and other miscellaneous uses make up the remaining 21%.