Ongoing monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of policy impacts is an essential exercise that verifies policy effectiveness, justifies policy implementation, and improves future policy design. Depending on the data available for this purpose, however, the accuracy and precision of M&E findings can vary widely.

To increase the precision of M&E research methods, the following study provides an initial demonstration of the new types of analysis that may be possible using the real‐time collection of high-resolution market data for energy-using products. This report retrospectively analyzes some of the potential impacts of energy efficiency policies in Sweden, with focus on four products: refrigerators, clothes washers, dishwashers, and televisions. The study also examines how the types of analysis used may one day assist in evaluating the impacts of energy efficiency policies that have been implemented to date.

Using real-time, high-resolution data, this study demonstrates with a high level of precision that, for each of the four products considered, newer, more energy-efficient models that are adopted by the Swedish market are just as affordable as older, less-efficient models. At any given moment, energy-efficient models may be more expensive, but this added cost of efficiency disappears over time. Furthermore, the authors observe little to no disturbance in long-term price trends for specific products.

The authors note that if policymakers want to monitor policy impacts with high precision, very large volumes of market data will be needed. Furthermore, the authors caution that additional analytical work is required before policymakers will be able to confidently relate long-term market impacts – such as those demonstrated here – to actual policy implementation and design.

This report was produced by Enervee for the government of Sweden. Data used in the analysis were derived from Enervee’s own data-collection methods, the Swedish government’s statistical agencies, and GfK, a market data and research company.