Annex A: Appliance Access Gap Methodology

CLASP used a two-step methodology to estimate access to the ten essential appliances in its Net Zero Heroes paper. We first used public databases to search for relevant data (Section 1). Then, as the data were incomplete in either space or time, we supplemented it with regression analysis (Section 2). The result was a comprehensive mapping of access gaps for most of the essential appliances across most of the world’s countries in 2022, as presented in Section 2.2 of Net Zero Heroes.

1. Data Sources

CLASP first utilized publicly available databases that collect survey results of appliance “penetration,” representing the percentage of households in a country (or for mobile phones, the percentage of individual adults) that own an appliance. The appliance access gap is the additive inverse of the penetration (1 – penetration) or the number of households that lack the appliance.

Penetration is a number between 0% and 100%. This is in contrast to appliance “ownership”, which is the total number of appliances in a country divided by the number of households and can be greater than 100% if households on average own more than one of a particular appliance. Even when ownership of an appliance in a country is less than 100%, ownership cannot be used to estimate penetration, as households with more than one appliance may “mask” households with zero appliances. For example, 100% ownership could mean universal access (100% penetration), or it could mean that half the households have two of a particular appliance while the other half have none (50% penetration).

The need to only focus on penetration limited the number of databases we were able to use. In cases where databases were missing a significant number of countries, we sought data from others. When multiple databases had data for the same country and appliance, we chose the more recent database to estimate penetration in that country. Table 1  provides an overview of the data sources used and the number of country estimates we were able to compile for each appliance.

Table 1: Data sources for estimating appliance access gaps

Lighting World Bank 1 162 None
Air Conditioners and Fans SE4All Chilling Prospects2 76 None
Refrigerator-Freezers DHS STATcompiler3 77 Regression
Heat Pumps European Heat Pump Association4, Country Surveys5,6,7,8 26 None
E-cooking WHO Energy Database9, Country Surveys10,11,12 179 None
Solar Water Pumps CLASP and Dalberg Solar Water Pump Market Sizing13,14,15 14 None
Televisions DHS STATcompiler16 77 Regression
Mobile Phones ITU DataHub17, Pew Research18 144 Regression
Radios DHS STATcompiler19, ITU Datahub20 118 None

2. Supplementing Data Sources

Even with the databases listed above, some countries were still missing as surveys had not been conducted in all countries or had not been conducted recently. Therefore, CLASP supplemented the data sources listed in the previous section using regression analysis to fill in missing data.

2.1 Regression Analysis Overview

Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to understand how changes in one or more independent variables are associated with changes in the dependent variable. Prior research has consistently identified a robust correlation between household income and the penetration of major household appliances. National electrification and urbanization levels also matter, but less than income for expensive or luxury products.1 Therefore, CLASP developed regression models that correlate penetration for a particular appliance (dependent variables) with the above socio-economic factors (independent/driver variables) for the same countries and for the latest year available. We then used these models to close data gaps for countries that were missing from the surveys in Section 1 and project the penetration to the year 2022. Figure 1 illustrates the general approach.

There are a variety of regression models that can be used. Typically, the data are transformed using a logistic (s-shaped) function, and then a linear regression is used. Instead, we used a beta regression model due to its reputation for better accommodating dependent variables that assume values between 0 and 1, such as appliance penetration, and producing more evenly distributed errors.2

Figure 1: General approach to supplementing available data through regression modeling.

2.2 Driver Variables

To ensure an accurate estimation of appliance penetration for 2022 across a diverse set of countries, it is critical that driver variables are accessible at the country level worldwide. The variables and their sources are listed in Table 2.

Table 2: Independent variables used in the regression model.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) World Bank Gross Domestic Product, Purchasing Power Parity (constant 2017 international $)21, IMF Real GDP Growth22 1990-2020, 2020-2022
Population UN Population Division23 1950-2100
Household Size UN Population Division Household Size and Composition 201924 1960-2018
Electrification World Bank Access to Electricity (% of the population25 1990-2020
Urbanization UN Population Division World Urbanization Prospects 2018 (% of the population residing in urban areas)26 1950-2050

Unfortunately the independent variables were not available for all the years. For example, the UN provides urbanization every 5 years, so we linearly interpolated during the 4 years in between to ensure data completeness. Similarly, household size data is only available for years when a survey was conducted in a particular country, prompting us to use linear interpolation to ensure we had data during the in-between years. Finally, the household size, GDP, and electrification variables were only available until 2020 or earlier. For these variables, we projected values to 2022 based on historical data as follows: electrification and household size linearly extrapolated based on historical trends, while GDP was exponentially extrapolated based on the IMF GDP growth rates. After generating complete data series for the independent variables over 1950–2022, we proceeded to develop regressions for mobile phones, televisions, and refrigerator-freezers as follows.

2.3 Refrigerator-Freezer Analysis

CLASP’s model of refrigerator-freezer penetration incorporates average household income, electrification, and urbanization. The results (Table 5) show a relatively high R2 at 0.77 (socio-economic variables explain 77% of the variability in refrigerator-freezer penetration across time and countries)

Table 3: Refrigerator Beta Regression Model

Constant (ln γ in logistic model) -3.42
α1 Monthly Household Income Coefficient 4.59x10^-4
α2 Electrification Rate Coefficient 2.31
α3 Urbanization Rate Coefficient 1.79
Multiple R^2/Pseudo R^2 0.77
RMS Error (percentage points) 2.1
2.4 Television Analysis

According to CLASP’s previous research, the household TV penetration rate is mostly related to the national household income level and electrification rate. Therefore, the beta regression model was built based on these two variables. The results show that electrification has the most significant impact on the household TV penetration rate in a specific country. Table 4 shows the beta model results, including coefficients and a root-mean-square error of 1.4 percentage points.

Table 4: TV Beta Regression Model

Constant (ln γ in logistic model) -2.32
α1 Monthly Household Income Coefficient 4.71x10^-4
α2 Electrification Rate Coefficient 3.13
Multiple R^2/Pseudo R^2 0.80
RMS Error (percentage points) 1.4
2.5 Mobile Phone Analysis 

Through trial and error, CLASP found that population, urbanization, and electrification, had the most significant relationship to phone penetration rate, resulting in a 0.52 R2 correlation coefficient. Among all the variables, electrification had the biggest coefficient value at 0.84 (the bigger the coefficient, the bigger the impact of the explanatory variable on penetration).

Table A: Mobile Phone Beta Regression Model

Constant (ln γ in logistic model) -1.41
α1 Population Coefficient -1.84*10^-7
α2 Urbanization Rate Coefficient 0.46
α3 Electrification Rate Coefficient 0.84
Multiple R^2/Pseudo R^2 0.52
RMS Error (percentage points) 1.4
2.6 Analysis of Other Appliances

For the remaining appliances, we either did not have to supplement the data through regression because the datasets were substantially complete, or we were unable to do so. Our estimate of access gaps is, therefore, an undercount and additional millions of people are likely experiencing access gaps in countries for which we were not able to develop estimates.

  • Lighting: we presumed that penetration was the same as the electrification rate, as lighting is the first appliance procured by households after gaining access to electricity. As the electrification data set was complete, we did not have to supplement it.
  • E-cooking: the dataset was similarly complete.
  • Air conditioners and fans and heat pumps: We were unable to find a global dataset, but we did find data estimates across most hot and cold countries, which would be the countries where access to these appliances would be necessary.
  • Solar water pumps: we had initial data for so few countries, and the usefulness of solar water pumps depends much more on local context than the other household appliances. Therefore, we presented the limited data we had without attempting to supplement it.
  • Radio: we were unable to develop a satisfactory beta regression model. The model had high errors and a low correlation coefficient, indicating that the socio-economic variables did not meaningfully explain the penetration, and sure enough, surveys show that radio penetration in many countries has been falling with time even as income has been rising. We, therefore, again relied on the survey data only and did not use regression to supplement it.

Annex B: Initiatives & Programs Leading the Way

Initiatives and Programs

Ayrton Fund

The Ayrton Fund aims to accelerate the clean energy transition in developing countries.

  • UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)
  • UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)
  • Fans
  • Air conditioning
  • Walk-in cold storage
  • Electric cooking
  • Other appliances

The Ayrton Fund, supported by the UK government with a commitment of up to £1 billion, aims to accelerate the clean energy transition in developing countries. With a focus on research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) of innovative clean energy technologies and business models, the fund seeks to make clean energy options more affordable, accessible, and attractive in developing countries, in alignment with Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action). Managed jointly by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the fund supports various themes, including lower-cost clean energy supplies, efficient demand management, and smart delivery systems. The fund will operate from April 2021 to March 2026.

In its first year, the fund supported 16 clean energy RD&D platforms and programs including:

Low Energy Inclusive Appliances (LEIA): This FCDO program focuses on improving the efficiency, availability, and affordability of electrical appliances and solar technologies for off-grid and weak-grid settings.

Modern Energy Cooking Services (MECS): This FCDO program, involving leading UK universities and innovators, advances research on clean cooking solutions, facilitating the transition from biomass to cleaner cooking fuels in developing countries.

Transforming Energy Access (TEA): This FCDO platform facilitates the testing and scale-up of innovative technologies and business models.

Climate Compatible Growth (CCG): This FCDO platform generates evidence and global public goods to aid countries in developing and implementing economic strategies and plans.

Clean Energy Innovation Facility (CEIF): This BEIS program promotes the commercialization of clean energy technologies in developing countries, focusing on themes such as industrial decarbonization, sustainable cooling, smart energy, and energy storage.

Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF): Administered by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), this BEIS fund supports researchers and innovators, both in the UK and internationally, in addressing crucial issues faced by developing countries, including access to clean energy.

Clean Cooking Alliance

CCA is dedicated to promoting clean cooking solutions and reducing the negative impacts of traditional cooking practices.


United Nations Foundation


Electric cooking

The Clean Cooking Alliance (CCA) is dedicated to promoting clean cooking solutions and reducing the negative impacts of traditional cooking practices. It is aligned with SDG 7, which aims to ensure universal access to modern energy services (including clean cooking) by 2023. By addressing the health, environmental, and social challenges associated with cooking, the CCA aims to improve the lives of millions of people around the world.3

CCA has a three-pronged strategy:4and Nepal’s Country Action Plan (CAP) for Transforming the Cookstoves and Fuels Market.5

CCA has provided more than $25 million USD in support to companies across the clean cooking industry.6 It has invested $17.8 million USD in research on the impacts of household air pollution and the benefits of clean cooking.7 More than 5,000 women entrepreneurs, youth, and educators have been trained, and CCA’s demand creation and behavior change campaigns have reached more than 40 million people in 8 countries.8

Clean Cooling Collaborative

The Clean Cooling Collaborative focuses on making efficient, climate-friendly cooling accessible for all.


ClimateWorks Foundation


Air Conditioning

The Clean Cooling Collaborative, formerly Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program (K-CEP), is an initiative of ClimateWorks Foundation focused on transforming the cooling sector and making efficient, climate-friendly cooling accessible for all. The Collaborative catalyzes organizations, companies, and governments to bring efficient, climate-friendly cooling policies, financing, and technology solutions to the world. The Collaborative estimates that cooling-focused efforts could avoid 100 Gt CO2e by 2050 while also closing the cooling access gap.9

Optimizing and improving mechanical cooling technologies, including air conditioners, is a major focus. Through its network of implementing partners, the Collaborative is working to improve test procedures, strengthen minimum energy performance standards, implement demand flexibility more widely, and improve affordability. All of these efforts are aimed at achieving a rapid transformation of room air conditioner markets.

The Global Cooling Prize demonstrated that such a transformation is achievable. The winning prototypes met the ambitious target of having at least five times less climate impact than the standard room air conditioners available when the competition launched in 2018. According to the prize administrators, “When scaled, such technologies could prevent 75 Gt of CO2e emissions cumulatively between now and 2050 and mitigate over 0.5 °C of global warming by the end of the century.”10 The competition was initiated by RMI, the Government of India, and Mission Innovation.

Clean Lighting Coalition

CLiC is CLASP’s global campaign calling for the phase-out of toxic, mercury-containing fluorescent lighting in favor of efficient LEDs





The Clean Lighting Coalition (CLiC) is CLASP’s global campaign calling for the phase-out of toxic, mercury-containing fluorescent lighting in favor of efficient LEDs through the Minamata Convention on Mercury. CLiC engages national governments, provides robust evidence demonstrating the feasibility of an LED transition, and mobilizes more than 300 advocates in over 70 countries worldwide.

A global LED transition is vital to protecting human and environmental health from the dangers of mercury – a dangerous neurotoxin that can pollute water and land. Phasing out fluorescent lamps is also critical to meeting global climate targets. LED lamps are twice as energy efficient as fluorescent alternatives – lowering global energy demand and associated emissions. Mercury-free LEDs also have life spans two to three times longer than fluorescent lamps, resulting in less e-waste.

In 2022, CLiC supported key decision makers at the Minamata Convention COP4 to adopt an amendment proposed by the Africa Region to phase out compact fluorescent lamps by 2025. At COP5 the following year, CLiC continued its engagement with the 147 Parties to the Convention to accelerate the global transition to LED lighting – achieving a phase out of all fluorescent lamps globally by 2027. The decisions effectively end the mercury-added lighting industry for good and offers significant climate benefits, including (cumulatively from phase out dates to 2030):

  • Avoid 2.963 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions
  • Save $1.23 trillion USD on electricity bills
  • Eliminate 193 tonnes of mercury pollution, both from the light bulbs themselves and from avoided mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants

Efficiency for Access

Efficiency for Access is a global coalition that promotes high-performing appliances that provide clean energy access to the world's poorest populations.

  • Energy Saving Trust
  • Electric cookers
  • Fans
  • Lighting
  • Refrigerators/freezers
  • Solar water pumps
  • Televisions
  • Walk-in cold storage
  • Other productive use appliances

Efficiency for Access is a global coalition supported by UK aid and IKEA Foundation that promotes high-performing appliances that provide clean energy access to the world’s poorest populations. It is jointly coordinated by CLASP and Energy Saving Trust and aims to accelerate the growth of off-grid appliance markets to improve livelihoods, reduce carbon emissions, and support sustainable development. Established in 2018, it has grown to comprise 76 organizations, including donors, investors, and industry stakeholders, mobilizing over £280 million in funding for off-grid-appropriate appliances.

The Coalition’s flagship program, Low-Energy Inclusive Appliances (LEIA), focuses on research and innovation to make household and light-industrial electrical appliances more affordable, efficient, and accessible in developing countries. LEIA’s activities include market stimulation (Global LEAP Awards), quality assurance (VeraSol), R&D support (Efficiency for Access R&D Fund), and student competitions (Efficiency for Access Design Challenge). LEIA is funded by FCDO, and by IKEA Foundation.

LEIA has facilitated the sale of over 2.7 million solar appliances, benefiting around 12 million people. It has also supported over 500 off-grid appliance companies, disbursing £4 million in R&D grants, resulting in 38 completed projects, 31,000 beneficiaries, and the creation of over 900 jobs.

Productive Use Appliance Facility

CLASP’s Productive Use Appliance Financing Facility makes quality-assured productive use technology more affordable in emerging markets.

  • Solar water pumps
  • Electric pressure cookers
  • Refrigerators/freezers
  • Walk-in cold storage
  • Fans
  • Mills

Access to affordable and energy-efficient productive use appliances can deliver significant economic, health, education, and quality of life benefits while lowering carbon emissions. Despite their transformative potential, productive use appliance sales are extremely low, and affordability is the biggest barrier to market growth.

CLASP’s Productive Use Appliance Financing Facility is a groundbreaking initiative funded by the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) and supported by Nithio that makes quality-assured productive use technology more affordable in emerging markets. The Facility, which launched in 2022, provides procurement subsidies, consumer financing, capacity-building small grants, and technical assistance for eligible appliance distributors, allowing companies to lower costs for customers while investing in long-term growth.11

The Facility operates across the off-grid, mini-grid, and grid-connected (utility) sectors, initially in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Uganda. It supports the sales of six main appliance technologies, selected because of their relative maturity and potential to drive development impact: walk-in cold rooms, refrigerators, electric cookers, fans, mills, and solar water pumps.12The Facility represents a crucial step towards ensuring that all communities have access to affordable and sustainable energy solutions, helping to create a more just and equitable world for all.


The REPowerEU Plan calls for a doubling of the current deployment rate of individual heat pumps, resulting in a cumulative 10 million units deployed from 2022 to 2027.

  • European Commission
  • Heat pumps

About 50% of all the energy consumed in the EU today is used for heating and cooling, and more than 70% of heating and cooling is still based on fossil fuels, mostly natural gas.13 The EU’s ambition, as expressed in the Fit for 55 proposals of 2021, is to reduce net GHG emissions at least 55% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050.14 To hit these targets, heating must be electrified.

The need to electrify heating became even more urgent with the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In response, the European Commission established the REPowerEU Plan in May 2022 to shift Europe away from fossil gas and oil use more quickly than previously contemplated. The plan aims to stimulate even faster uptake of individual heat pumps in buildings and of large-scale heat pumps in district heating and cooling networks.

The REPowerEU Plan calls for a doubling of the current deployment rate of individual heat pumps, resulting in a cumulative 10 million units deployed from 2022 to 2027.15 A number of policy changes will be needed to reach this ambitious target, and success will require a concerted effort on the part of multiple EU agencies and individual member states.

Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment Initiative

SEAD Initiative is a group of 29 energy ministers working to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

  • Clean Energy Ministerial
  • Energy Efficiency Hub
  • Residential Air Conditioning
  • Lighting
  • Residential Refrigerators and Freezers
  • Industrial Electric Motor Systems

The Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative is a project of the Clean Energy Ministerial, a group of 29 energy ministers working in concert to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.16 The SEAD Initiative focuses on deploying efficient appliances to “reduce energy use, bills, and emissions.”17

In 2021, SEAD together with the UK Government, IEA, and CLASP  organized the Product Efficiency Call to Action. Timed to coincide with the UNFCCC COP26 in Glasgow, the Call to Action sought to galvanize action around appliance efficiency by challenging countries to double the efficiency (or halve the energy use) of four common types of appliances and equipment by 2030: residential air conditioning, lighting, residential refrigerators and freezers, and industrial electric motor systems. Together, these four appliances and equipment are responsible for the majority of global electricity use.

While 14 countries signed the pledge,18 further work remains: current signatories should take action to implement new policies (standards, labeling, or incentives) and make plans to update them in order to meet the efficiency doubling goals. CLASP’s initial review of policies found that the signatories have not yet made significant improvements to their MEPS, but doubling is still possible if countries adopt an aggressive policy revision schedule and levels in line with IEA’s Efficiency Performance Ladders prior to 2030.19,20,21,22

United for Efficiency

U4E helps developing countries and emerging economies to move their markets toward more energy-efficient appliances and equipment.

  • U.N. Environment
  • Lighting
  • Refrigeration
  • Room air conditioners
  • Distribution transformers
  • Electric motors

United for Efficiency (U4E) is a global effort led by UN Environment that helps developing countries and emerging economies to move their markets toward more energy-efficient appliances and equipment. The initiative works by:23

  • Informing policy makers of the potential environmental, financial, and economic savings of a transition to high-efficiency products
  • Identifying and promoting global best practices in transforming markets
  • Offering tailored assistance to governments to develop and implement national and regional strategies and projects to achieve a fast and sustainable market transformation

U4E carries out projects at the regional, multi-country, and country levels. Projects bring together U4E founding partners CLASP, International Copper Association, NRDC, UNDP, and UN Environment with national governments, academic institutions, manufacturers, and other national and international organizations. U4E has ongoing projects in Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, Eastern and Southern Africa, Latin America, and elsewhere.24

U4E has created a number of publications including country savings assessments, model regulation guidelines, and green public procurement guidelines to quantify the benefits of a transition to energy-efficient appliances and equipment and provide stakeholders with specific guidance for realizing these benefits.

U4E aims to help countries reduce electricity consumption by up to 20% and, by 2030, achieve a 1.25 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.25

United States Inflation Reduction Act

The Inflation Reduction Act allocates $369 billion in funding for emissions-reducing climate and clean energy provisions.

  • US Department of Energy
  • US Internal Revenue Service
  • US Environmental Protection Agency
  • Heat pumps

On August 16, 2022, US President Joseph R. Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law, allocating $369 billion USD in funding for emissions-reducing climate and clean energy provisions. The IRA will have a significant impact on emissions reductions, job creation, and public health, and is the most significant federal climate and clean energy legislation in US history. It is projected that the IRA’s provisions could cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 37–43% below 2005 levels by 2030, putting the US’s Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution of 50% reduction within reach.26

One focus of the IRA is heat pumps for space heating. Several financial incentives including tax credits and rebates encourage individuals to voluntarily retrofit their homes with energy-efficient appliances and other upgrades. As participation is voluntary, and financial incentives may fund numerous types of efficient alternatives, the precise impact of the IRA on the residential sector is hard to estimate. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated a 2 percentage point increase in heat pump penetration, or 2.5 million new installations,27,28 while RMI estimated 7.2 million installations from the tax credits alone.29

Further incentives for heat pumps may be provided through the Home Owner Managing Energy Savings (HOMES) program, which will incentivize $4.3 billion USD of whole-home energy retrofits, as well as a Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GHGRF) that designated $7 billion USD to supporting the deployment of zero-emissions technology in low-income and disadvantaged communities.30 Implementation of the IRA now moves to the states, which will develop programs to utilize this funding.

Programs in US states and other countries seeking to drive further heat pump adoption should seek to address all the market barriers to heat pump adoption through incentives, equitable pricing, and regulations, as well as overall coordination and communication.31

0. Michael A McNeil et al., “Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs,” June 15, 2008,

1. Francisco Cribari-Neto and Achim Zeileis, “Beta Regression in R,” Journal of Statistical Software 34, no. 2 (2010),

2. “Clean Cooking Alliance,” Clean Cooking Alliance, accessed June 7, 2023,

3. Clean Cooking Alliance. “Our Approach.” Clean Cooking Alliance, n.d.[/footnote]

  • Investment: mobilizing funding and resources to support the scale-up of clean cooking solutions
  • Innovation: developing and promoting new technologies and business models
  • Advocacy: integrating clean cooking into national development agendas and policies

CCA develops partnerships with myriad stakeholders, including governments, philanthropies, and private companies. Through these partnerships, CCA has been able to leverage resources, expertise, and networks to scale up interventions and drive systemic change. Two examples are Haiti’s Cookstoves and Clean Energy Market Project[footnote]“Haiti Project | Clean Cooking Alliance,” accessed August 8, 2023,

4. “Nepal Project | Clean Cooking Alliance,” accessed August 8, 2023,

5. Clean Cooking Alliance. “Clean Cooking Alliance.” Clean Cooking Alliance, n.d.

6. Clean Cooking Alliance. Clean Cooking Alliance. “Clean Cooking Alliance 10 Years of Impact.” Clean Cooking Alliance, 2021.

7. “Clean Cooking Alliance 10 Years of Impact,” Clean Cooking Alliance, accessed August 8, 2023,

8. Cava, Mirka della. “Cleaning up How We Cool Down.” Clean Cooling Collaborative (blog), October 28, 2022.

9. Global Cooling Prize. “Breakthrough, Climate-Friendly ACs: Winners of the Global Cooling Prize Announced.” Global Cooling Prize, April 28, 2021.

10. CLASP. “CLASP & Nithio Launch Financing Facility for Productive Use Appliances,” October 19, 2022.

11. CLASP. “CLASP & Nithio Launch Financing Facility for Productive Use Appliances,” October 19, 2022.

12. European Commission. “Heat Pumps.” European Commission, n.d.

13. “Fit for 55.” Government. European Council Council of the European Union, April 27, 2023.


15. “Clean Energy Ministerial. “Who We Are.” Clean Energy Ministerial. Accessed May 4, 2023.

16. Clean Energy Ministerial. “Super-Efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD).” Accessed May 4, 2023.

17. Clean Energy Ministerial. “14 Governments Commit to Product Efficiency Call to Action.”, 2021.

18. Clean Energy Ministerial. “Industrial Electric Motor Systems.” Clean Energy Ministerial. Accessed May 10, 2023.

19. Clean Energy Ministerial. “Residential Refrigerators and Fridge-Freezers.” Clean Energy Ministerial. Accessed May 10, 2023.

20. Clean Energy Ministerial. “Indoor Lighting.” Clean Energy Ministerial. Accessed May 15, 2023.

21. Clean Energy Ministerial. “Residential Air Conditioners (ACs).” Clean Energy Ministerial. Accessed May 10, 2023.

22. United for Efficiency. “About.” United for Efficiency. Accessed June 15, 2023.

23. United for Efficiency. “United for Efficiency.” United for Efficiency, 2019.

24. “United for Efficiency.” United for Efficiency, 2019.

25. Mahajan, Megan, Olivia Ashmoore, and Robbie Orvis. “Updated Inflation Reduction Act Modeling Using the Energy Policy Simulator.” San Francisco, CA, USA: Energy Innovation, 2022.

26. US Energy Information Administration. “Issues in Focus: Inflation Reduction Act Cases in the AEO2023.” Annual Energy Outlook 2023, March 16, 2023.

27. CLASP calculated the number of anticipated heat pump installations based on 2020 RECS data and EIA’s assumed 2 percentage point increase in heat pump market share.

28. Smedick, David, Rachel Golden, and Alisa Petersen. “The Inflation Reduction Act Could Transform the US Buildings Sector.” RMI (blog), August 31, 2022.

29. Orvis, Robbie, Anand Gopal, Jeffrey Rissman, Michael O’Boyle, Sara Baldwin, and Chris Busch. “Closing The Emissions Gap Between the IRA and 2030 U.S. NDC: Policies to Meet the Moment.” San Francisco, CA, USA: Energy Innovation, 2022.


Lowes, Richard, Duncan Gibb, Jan Rosenow, Samuel Thomas, Matt Malinowski, Alexia Ross, and Peter Graham. “A Policy Toolkit for Global Mass Heat Pump Deployment,” 2022.

31. “Access to Electricity (% of Population) | Data,” accessed April 10, 2023,

32. “Population by country at medium or high risk due to a lack of access to cooling”. “Chilling Prospects Series,” Sustainable Energy for All | SEforALL, accessed April 2, 2023,

33. “Households possessing a refrigerator”. US Agency for International Development (USAID), “STATcompiler: The DHS Program,” accessed April 4, 2023,

34. Stock and shipments data combined to model penetration in 2020. Jan Rosenow et al., “Heating up the Global Heat Pump Market,” Nature Energy 7, no. 10 (October 2022): 901–4,

35. Natural Resources Canada, “Residential Sector Canada Table 37: Appliance Stock by Appliance Type and Energy Source,” National Energy Use Database (Government of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, May 9, 2022),§or=res&juris=ca&rn=37&page=0.

36. US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS): Housing Characteristics Tables: Space Heating: By Housing Unit Type (HC6.1),” Excel spreadsheet, accessed May 4, 2023,

37. China Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, “China Urban-Rural Construction Statistics Yearbook,” 2016.

38. Hideaki Maeyama, “Market Report: Japan,” HPT - Heat Pumping Technologies, July 14, 2020,

39. Proportion of population with primary reliance on electricity for cooking, by fuel type (%)”, mid-range estimate. World Health Organization (WHO), “Proportion of Population with Primary Reliance on Fuels and Technologies for Cooking, by Fuel Type (%),” THE GLOBAL HEALTH OBSERVATORY, July 28, 2022,; Some other sources use the high-end WHO estimate, for example: Will Coley et al., “Global Market Assessment for Electric Cooking,” n.d.

40. “Final consumption – other sectors – households – energy use – cooking [FC_OTH_HH_E_CK]” divided by sum of other end uses. Eurostat, “Disaggregated Final Energy Consumption in Households - Quantities (Online Data Code: NRG_D_HHQ ),” Data Browser, accessed April 17, 2023,

41. “Appliance Stock by Appliance Type and Energy Source” Natural Resources Canada, “Residential Sector Canada Table 37.”

42. “Percent of households using each type of cooking fuel”. Matt Bruenig, “The Gas Stove Problem,” People’s Policy Project (blog), January 12, 2023,

43. “Target households off-grid”. CLASP and Dalberg, “CLASP Solar Water Pump Market Sizing,” Excel spreadsheet, May 9, 2019.

44. “Share of SHF that could use irrigation (near a water source)”. Dalberg, “Lighting Africa - PULSE Asset Market Sizing (2018-2030),” Excel spreadsheet, December 11, 2018.

45. “Share of SHF [smallholder farmers] that could use surface pumps (near a water source)” and “Share of SHF that could use submersible pumps”. CLASP, “UNIDO PUA Market Sizing Model,” Excel spreadsheet, January 25, 2022.

46. “Households possessing a television”. US Agency for International Development (USAID), “STATcompiler: The DHS Program.”

47. “Refers to the proportion of individuals who own a mobile (cellular) or smart telephone. An individual owns a mobile cellular telephone if he/she has a mobile cellular phone device with at least one active SIM card for personal use.” International Telecommunication Union (ITU), “Individuals Who Own a Mobile Cellular Telephone,” DataHub, accessed April 4, 2023,

48. “% of adults who own a cellphone”. Laura Silver and Courtney Johnson, “Internet Seen as Having Positive Impact in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Pew Research Center, October 9, 2018,

49. “Households possessing a radio”. US Agency for International Development (USAID), “STATcompiler: The DHS Program.”

50. “Refers to the proportion of households that have a radio. A radio is defined as a device capable of receiving broadcast radio signals, using common frequencies. A radio may be a stand-alone device or integrated with another device, e.g., computer or mobile phone.” “Households with a Radio - ITU DataHub,” accessed April 4, 2023,

51. “GDP,PPP (constant 2017 international $) | Data,” accessed April 10, 2023,

52. “World Economic Outlook (April 2023) - Real GDP Growth,” accessed September 25, 2023,

53. “World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations,” accessed April 10, 2023,

54. “Household Size and Composition | Population Division,” accessed April 10, 2023,

55. “Access to Electricity (% of Population) | Data,” accessed April 10, 2023,

56. “World Urbanization Prospects - Population Division - United Nations,” accessed April 10, 2023,


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